EIA releases May’s U.S. Short-Term Energy Outlook

EIA releases May's U.S. Short-Term Energy Outlook

The Administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Adminstration, Dr. Linda Capuano, issued the following comments about the May 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA released the monthly forecast on Tuesday, May 7.

Oil markets:

“In the May Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA increased its forecast for average Brent spot prices in 2019 and 2020 by about $5 per barrel. The increase accounts for near-term tightness in oil markets and increasing supply disruption risks in several oil producing countries.”

“EIA expects some tightness in global oil markets during the second and third quarters of 2019, but anticipates that growing production in the United States and key OPEC countries will ensure that global supplies continue to meet demand moving forward.”

“EIA expects drilling activity in the United States to increase in response to recently rising crude oil prices. EIA’s May forecast now expects U.S. crude oil production to reach an average of 13.4 million barrels per day in 2020, up 300,000 barrels per day from April’s outlook.”

“According to the May outlook, EIA still expects that the United States will begin exporting more petroleum and other liquids than it imports in the fourth quarter of 2019, continuing for the foreseeable future. The shift toward becoming a net petroleum, and other liquids, exporter marks a first for the United States since 1948.”

Natural gas production:

“EIA continues to forecast that U.S. dry natural gas production will reach new records in 2019 and 2020. The forecast indicates that this year will mark the first time U.S. production will exceed an average of 90 billion cubic feet per day.”

Electricity natural gas:

“In the May outlook, EIA continues to forecast that the share of utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas will grow over the next two years. By 2020, natural gas-fired power plants will produce nearly 38 percent of all U.S. utility-scale generation.”

Electricity renewables:

“EIA forecasts that U.S. electricity generation from renewables, including hydropower, will generate about 20 percent of all U.S. power by the end of 2020. Within the renewables mix, the forecast suggests that wind power will overtake hydropower this year as the leading source of renewable energy.”

Electricity nuclear:

“The EIA’s May Short-Term Energy Outlook, forecasts that nuclear’s share of U.S. utility-scale electricity generation will hold at 19 percent through 2020.”

Electricity coal:

“EIA’s May outlook forecasts that coal’s share of U.S. utility-scale electricity generation will decrease to 24 percent in 2019, and to 22 percent in 2020.”

Emissions:

“The May outlook forecasts that energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will decrease by 2.1 percent in 2019 and a further 0.8 percent in 2020. EIA attributes a significant part of this decrease to milder expected weather and to the growing use in the power sector of natural gas, which emits less CO2 than coal. This forecast, however, is sensitive to external factors, such as weather and economic activity.”

 

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